Publications

B. Ayarzagüena, A. Butler, P. Hitchcock, C. Garfinkel, Z. Lawrence, W. Ning, P. Rupp, Z. Wu, H. Afargan-Gerstman, N. Calvo, A. de la Cámara, M. Jucker, G. Koren, D. De Maeseneire, G. Manney, M. Osman, M. Taguchi, C. Barton, D.-C. Hong, Y.-K. Hyun, H. Kim, J. Knight, P. Malguzzi, D. Mastrangelo, J. Oh, I. Polichtchouk, J. Richter, I. Simpson, S.-W. Son, D. Specq, T. Stockdale, "The role of the stratospheric state in upward wave flux prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: a SNAPSI analysis." Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2026. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/411/2026/

Marisol Osman, Victor Marchezini, Steve Woolnough, Nico Caltabiano, Rachel Lowe, Emma Doyle, Dewald van Niekerk, Juan Bazo, Roger Stone, Arun Kumar, Yuhei Takaya, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Ziqiang Han, Masilin Gudoshava, Cristiana Stan, Shipra Jain, Atul Kumar Sahai, Kunio Yoneyama, Estelle de Coning, "The Subseasonal Applications for Agriculture and Environment (SAGE) project within the World Weather Research Programme: Making subseasonal predictions more useful for sectoral applications." Climate Services, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100693

F.M. de Andrade, C.A.S. Coelho, M. Osman, et al., "Prediction skill and potential predictability of subseasonal South American summer precipitation reconstructed from leading modes of variability." Climate Dynamics, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08091-6

L.G. Andrian, M. Osman, C. Vera, "How the Indian Ocean Dipole modulates ENSO effects over South America during austral spring." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES26004

L.B. Díaz, A.H. Butler, D. Avisar, S. Bischof, C.L. Boehm, G. Boschat, et al. (including M. Osman), "Disentangling anthropogenic effects on Southern Hemisphere circulation and surface climate: A multi-model large ensemble approach." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD046229

Judith Gerighausen, Joshua Oldham-Dorrington, Fabian Mockert, Marisol Osman, Christian Grams, "Understanding and Anticipating Anomalous Surface Impacts During Large-Scale Regimes." Meteorological Applications, 2025. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/met.70099

Carla Viazzo, Emilio Bianchi, Marisol Osman, "Predictability and Skill of 10-m Wind Speed Forecasts Over Argentina on Seasonal Timescales." International Journal of Climatology, 2025. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.8922

Julia Mindlin, Theodore Shepherd, Marisol Osman, Carolina Vera, Marlene Kretschmer, "Explaining and predicting the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025. https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2500697122

Katyelle Bezerra, Helber Gomes, Janaína Nascimento, Hakki Baltaci, Marisol Osman, Maria Silva, Thomás Ferreira, Mayara Lins, Lucas Rocha, Heliofábio Gomes, Fabricio Silva, Glauber Mariano, "Climate Extremes and Fire Behavior in the Brazilian Cerrado: A Multi-Years Assessment (2012--2023)." Earth Systems and Environment, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00809-6

Nadia Testani, Lucía Cappelletti, Leandro Díaz, Camila Prudente, Valentina Rabanal, Julia Mindlin, Reyk Börner, Divya David, Ismaila Diallo, Inés Leyba, Marisol Osman, Andres Tangarife-Escobar, "Balancing Earth science careers in an unequal world." Communications Earth & Environment, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01964-w

C. Garfinkel, Z. Lawrence, A. Butler, E. Dunn-Sigouin, I. Erner, A. Karpechko, G. Koren, M. Abalos, B. Ayarzagüena, D. Barriopedro, N. Calvo, A. Cámara, A. Charlton-Perez, J. Cohen, D. Domeisen, J. García-Serrano, N. Hindley, M. Jucker, H. Kim, R. Lee, S. Lee, M. Osman, F. Palmeiro, I. Polichtchouk, J. Rao, J. Richter, C. Schwartz, S.-W. Son, M. Taguchi, N. Tyrrell, C. Wright, R. Wu, "A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere--troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems." Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2025. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/

M. Riglos, Leandro Díaz, Valeria Hernández, Anna Sörensson, Marisol Osman, Juan Rivera, Federico Robledo, Camila Prudente, "Climate storylines as a tool for interdisciplinary dialogue on risk decision-making: Analyzing a severe drought in southeastern South America." Environmental Science & Policy, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103848

Irfan Rashid, Muhammad Abid, Marisol Osman, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq, Antje Weisheimer, Mansour Almazroui, José Torres-Alavez, Muhammad Afzaal, "Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia." Climate Dynamics, 2024. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5

Fabian Mockert, Christian Grams, Sebastian Lerch, Marisol Osman, Julian Quinting, "Multivariate post-processing of probabilistic sub-seasonal weather regime forecasts." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4840

J. Spaeth, P. Rupp, M. Osman, C. Grams, T. Birner, "Flow-Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic-European Weather Regimes." Geophysical Research Letters, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109733

J. Mindlin, C. Vera, T. Shepherd, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, M. Osman, M. Terrado, "Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective." Climate Services, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480

L. Andrian, M. Osman, C. Vera, "The role of the Indian Ocean Dipole in modulating the austral spring ENSO teleconnection to the Southern Hemisphere." Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2024. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/

Julia Mindlin, Carolina Vera, Theodore Shepherd, Marisol Osman, "Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America." Journal of Climate, 2023. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/22/JCLI-D-23-0134.1.xml

Marisol Osman, Remo Beerli, Dominik Büeler, Christian Grams, "Multi-model assessment of sub-seasonal predictive skill for year-round Atlantic–European weather regimes." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2023. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.4512

Marisol Osman, Daniela Domeisen, Andrew Robertson, Antje Weisheimer, "Sub-seasonal to decadal predictions in support of climate services." Climate Services, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100397

Esteban Thomasz, Kevin Corfield, Ana Vilker, Marisol Osman, "Forecasting soybean production to enhance climate services for Agriculture in Argentina." Climate Services, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100341

Luciano Andrian, Marisol Osman, Carolina Vera, "Climate predictability on seasonal timescales over South America from the NMME models." Climate Dynamics, 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06506-8

Zachary Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim Garfinkel, Neil Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea Lang, Simon Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irina Statnaia, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas Tyrrell, Corwin Wright, Rachel Wu, "Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems." Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/977/2022/

Shipra Jain, Julia Mindlin, Gerbrand Koren, Carla Gulizia, Claudia Steadman, Gaby Langendijk, Marisol Osman, Muhammad Abid, Yuhan Rao, Valentina Rabanal, "Are We at Risk of Losing the Current Generation of Climate Researchers to Data Science?" AGU Advances, 2022. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022AV000676

M. Osman, T.G. Shepherd, C.S. Vera, "The combined influence of the stratospheric polar vortex and ENSO on zonal asymmetries in the southern hemisphere upper tropospheric circulation during austral spring and summer." Climate Dynamics, 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06225-0

N. Bodnariuk, C.G. Simionato, M. Osman, M. Saraceno, "The Río de la Plata plume dynamics over the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf and its link with the large scale atmospheric variability on interannual timescales." Continental Shelf Research, 2021. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027843432030251X

I.F.A. Cavalcanti, N.J.C. Barreto, M.S. Alvarez, M. Osman, C.A.S. Coelho, "Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation." Meteorological Applications, 2021. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/met.2011

N. Bodnariuk, C.G. Simionato, M. Saraceno, M. Osman, L.B. Diaz, "Interannual Variability of the Latitude of Separation of the Brazil Current: Teleconnections and Oceanic Rossby Waves Propagation." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2021. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JC017557

J. Mindlin, T.G. Shepherd, C. Vera, M. Osman, "Combined Effects of Global Warming and Ozone Depletion/Recovery on Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation and Regional Precipitation." Geophysical Research Letters, 2021. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL092568

M. Osman, C.A.S. Coelho, C.S. Vera, "Calibration and combination of seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America using Ensemble Regression." Climate Dynamics, 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05845-2

J. Mindlin, T.G. Shepherd, C.S. Vera, M. Osman, G. Zappa, R.W. Lee, K.I. Hodges, "Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing." Climate Dynamics, 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1

M. Osman, C.S. Vera, "Predictability of extratropical upper-tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere by its main modes of variability." Journal of Climate, 2020. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/4/jcli-d-19-0122.1.xml?tab_body=abstract-display

T.J. Bracegirdle, C.R. Holmes, J.S. Hosking, G.J. Marshall, M. Osman, M. Patterson, T. Rackow, "Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5." Earth and Space Science, 2020. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EA001065

W. Cai, M.J. McPhaden, A.M. Grimm, R.R. Rodrigues, A.S. Taschetto, R.D. Garreaud, B. Dewitte, G. Poveda, Y.-G. Ham, A. Santoso, B. Ng, W. Anderson, G. Wang, T. Geng, H.-S. Jo, J.A. Marengo, L.M. Alves, M. Osman, S. Li, L. Wu, C. Karamperidou, K. Takahashi, C. Vera, "Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America." Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0040-3

M.S. Alvarez, C.A.S. Coelho, M. Osman, M.Â.F. Firpo, C.S. Vera, "Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017." Weather and Forecasting, 2020. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/5/wafD190200.xml

G.S. Langendijk, C. Aubry-Wake, M. Osman, C. Gulizia, F. Attig-Bahar, E. Behrens, A. Bertoncini, N. Hart, V.S. Indasi, S. Innocenti, E.C. Linden, N. Mamnun, K. Rasouli, K.A. Reed, N. Ridder, J. Rivera, R. Ruscica, B.U. Ukazu, J.P. Walawender, D.P. Walker, B.J. Woodhams, Y.A. Yilmaz, "Three ways forward to improve regional information for extreme events: An early career perspective." Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2019. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00006/full

M.S. Alvarez, B. Cerne, M. Osman, C.S. Vera, "Intraseasonal and low frequency processes contributing to the December 2013 heat wave in Southern South America." Climate Dynamics, 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-04838-6

M. Osman, M.S. Alvarez, "Subseasonal prediction of the heat wave of December 2013 in Southern South America by the POAMA and BCC-CPS models." Climate Dynamics, 2018. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3582-4

C.S. Vera, M. Osman, "Activity of the Southern Annular Mode during 2015–2016 El Niño event and its impact on Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies." International Journal of Climatology, 2018. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.5419

F. Rauser, M. Alqadi, S. Arowolo, N. Baker, J. Bedard, E. Behrens, N. Dogulu, L.G. Domingues, A. Frassoni, J. Keller, S. Kirkpatrick, G. Langendijk, M. Mirsafa, S. Mohammad, A.K. Naumann, M. Osman, K. Reed, M. Rothmüller, V. Schemann, A. Singh, S. Sonntag, F. Tummon, D. Victor, M.Q. Villafuerte, J.P. Walawender, M. Zaroug, "Earth system science frontiers: An early career perspective." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/6/bams-d-16-0025.1.xml

M. Osman, C.S. Vera, "Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models." Climate Dynamics, 2017. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3444-5

P.C. Spennemann, J.A. Rivera, M. Osman, A. Saulo, O.C. Penalba, "Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events." Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2017. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/18/8/jhm-d-17-0015_1.xml

M. Osman, C.S. Vera, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, "Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models." Climate Dynamics, 2016. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2